Best Ball Badger

Key Components of Winning Teams

Final week we gave an summary of the make-up of typical profitable Greatest Ball lineups in terms of numbers at every position.  This week, we’ll break down what varieties of players have been half of league profitable groups. Greatest Ball Badger may also spotlight gamers from this yr’s draft that match the mould.

We appeared on the similar 348 teams as final week (once more with the caveat of this being a relatively small knowledge set) and this time sorted by points to see if there was a pure threshold to goal for so as to cash.

  • Out of the 95 groups that scored 1950 or extra points, there were 91 groups that cashed –  29 first place finishes, 29 second place finishes, 24 thirds place finishes, 9 fourth place finishes.
  • Out of the 51 groups that scored 2000 or more points, all teams cashed –  27 first place finishes, 14 second place finishes, eight thirds place finishes, 2 fourth place finishes

We selected making 2000 the magic quantity.  2000 is a nice spherical quantity and an excellent threshold to focus on for a excessive chance of finishing first in a 12-team greatest ball league.

The subsequent query is, what made these 51 groups special?  We took a take a look at each staff’s roster and decided how frequent certain gamers confirmed up in lineups.  Earlier than you’re taking a peek under, who do you assume made the record?

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Pat Mahomes?

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Tyreek the Freak and Nuk?

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Gurley, Saquads, McCaffrey?

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Zeus (Kelce), Ertz, Kittle?

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All right.  Not surprisingly, having the highest scorers at each position helped so much in getting those high last point totals.

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How about Tarik Cohen, DeSean Jackson, Rob Gronkowski and Drew Brees?

Let’s check out what names popped up with greater frequency:

Player% PossessionPositionFactorsSphericalAaron Jones14%RB158.48James Conner14%RB252.517Brandin Cooks14%WR203.25Todd Gurley14%RB342.61Mark Ingram14%RB132.zero4Travis Kelce14%TE243.13Michael Thomas14%WR253.02Robby Anderson14%WR131.Four8Matt Ryan14%QB361.4611Mohamed Sanu14%WR149.414Juju Smith-Schuster14%WR241.4FourChris Carson16%RB191.49Derrick Henry16%RB193.86FourDeshaun Watson16%QB340.76Alvin Kamara16%RB313.71George Kittle16%TE214.79Mike Williams16%WR158.710Robert Woods16%WR222.67TJ Yeldon16%RB145.616Tarik Cohen18%RB198.446Desean Jackson18%WR130.813Duke Johnson18%RB108.5eightZach Ertz18%TE222.ThreeThreeTyreek Hill18%WR290.5ThreeEric Ebron20%TE189.213Christian McCaffrey20%RB3322Saquon Barkley22%RB340.Three1Drew Brees22%QB309.48eightPatrick Mahomes22%QB429.0811Russell Wilson22%QB305.926

Quarterbacks

There was Mahomes (drafted across the 11th spherical) who gained leagues by himself and a few mid-late round QBs that boomed.  Wilson (6th), Brees (Eighth), Watson (Sixth), and Ryan (11th) have been all fantasy studs at their position – no position gamers right here.  The lesson right here is it could be value paying up (Sixth-8th rounder) for a strong QB with excessive upside – contrary to conventional leagues the place streaming QBs is possible.  There’s additionally so much depth at the position that house owners shouldn’t reach and will look forward to worth relative to ADP.

Potential targets (ADP as of 7/7):

Aaron Rodgers (ADP 72.5 – Spherical 7 Decide zero.5) – Rodgers played the bulk of last season with an injured knee suffered in Week 1 and a receiving core of Adams + rookie WRs (Allison harm in week 5, Cobb numerous injuries throughout the season).  He’s primed for a bounce back yr with well being back on his aspect, more experience from his rookies (Marquest-Valdez Scantling et al), a wholesome Geronimo Allison, and the removing of a stale Mike McCarthy offense.

Matt Ryan (ADP 88.2 – Spherical 8 Decide Four.2) – Matt Ryan returned to MVP type last yr with virtually 5000 yards passing (4924) to go together with 35 TDs and simply 7 INTs.  The query with Matt Ryan has all the time been if he’s going to get his touchdowns or not. He has had some down years when new offensive schemes have been first put into place but we anticipate that his reunion with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to be a clean one.

Drew Brees (ADP 103.1 – Spherical 9 Decide 7.1) – Can the fantasy GMs give up disrespecting Drew Brees already?  He represents one of the safest picks in the draft and as the projected ninth QB off the board, he is going to return on his value.  Apart from last season’s 3992 yard effort, in each of his 12 different seasons as a Saint, he’s gone over 4000 yards yearly (averaging 4841 yards and 34 TDs).  Beginning of the top? We don’t assume so. His major offensive weapons are nonetheless there and nonetheless unfair (Thomas + Kamara), he’s gotten an improve at TE (Prepare dinner), and one yr of seasoning for sophomore Tre’Quan Smith.

Other suggestions – Luck (ADP 65.10 – Round 6 Decide 5.1), Watson (ADP 65.60 – Round 6 Decide 5.6), Goff (ADP 116.Three – Spherical 10 Decide eight.3)

Operating Backs

There are three categories that show up with prevalence and we categorize them how a traditional fantasy league would: Early round stud, mid spherical value, and late round sleeper.

Early Round Stud –

Lots of drafts final yr started with some mix of Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley.  There was a token Antonio Brown in there followed by extra operating backs.

We all know dropping your first rounder means virtually certain failure in fantasy soccer.  In traditional leagues, this loss might be made up by way of savvy waiver wire additions or trades.  In greatest ball this can be a sure demise sentence. None of the 51 groups that scored 2000+ drafted Lev Bell last yr.  The key within the early rounds is to attenuate danger and attempt to find a excessive finish RB.

What backs carry more danger this yr?

One RB that’s on everyone’s mind is Todd Gurley.  He finished 4th in scoring (behind Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Roethlisberger) and did so in solely 14 games.  However then it was mainly downhill from there. Gurley did not play in the remaining two regular season video games on account of a knee damage.  He had a great displaying within the Divisional Round recreation, but was barely present for the NFC Championship recreation and the Super Bowl, where the Rams actually needed him.  Since then, the staff traded up to draft a operating again within the third spherical (Darrell Henderson) and speak from his coach is they’ll be managing the arthritis in his knee.  That seems like an RBBC state of affairs with damage danger.

Another RB carrying rather a lot of unknowns is Le’Veon Bell.  He’s had a full yr off from on subject actions, which might imply he’s rusty, however it also means one yr away from the traditional soccer wear and tear.  By far the larger query marks revolve around shifting from one of the most effective offenses in the league to at least one that optimistically tasks to be common. Worse offense means lower landing opportunity.  Professional Soccer Focus rated the Steelers Offensive Line as #1 in 2018. Meanwhile Bell’s new group, the Jets, have been rated #25. The Steelers have also been a group that has allowed only one RB to dominate the ball.  The Jets paid Bell so much of cash to be within the recreation, but they could spell him extra typically than Coach Tomlin did in Pittsburgh. We consider that he has a reasonably protected flooring because of the volume, but his ceiling is restricted.

Mid Round Worth –

Early-mid players like Tarik Cohen (Spherical 5-6), Derrick Henry (3-4), Mark Ingram (4), and late-mid players like Aaron Jones (8) and Chris Carson (9) have been great in each conventional soccer leagues and Greatest Ball.

Some potential value targets might be placed in a single class – forgotten veterans that ought to have the lion’s share of the backfield like Kenyan Drake (ADP 42.2 – Spherical 4, Decide 6.2) and Mark Ingram (ADP 48.9 – Round 5, Decide 0.9).  The opposite bucket can be operating backs that many thought would win the beginning job final yr but didn’t – Rashaad Penny (ADP 69.7 – Round 6, Decide 9.7), Royce Freeman (ADP 88.6 – Round 8, Decide 4.6), and D’Onta Foreman (ADP 116.1 – Spherical 10, Decide 8.1).

Some gamers in the late-mid rounds have ADPs that fluctuate dramatically because the preseason develops and the starters turn out to be more apparent.  Now (July) is the time to take some photographs and hopefully land some starting RBs in your workforce at lower draft value.

Late Spherical Sleeper –

In the event you drafted early last yr, you would have snagged a Prime 10 RB within the last round with James Conner.  Even by means of the preseason, most thought Lev Bell would sit out at most 2 games, which means Conner was going to be a handcuff.

In Greatest Ball, there are two varieties of late round flyers (handcuffs and cross catchers) and how you draft them will partially be dependent on the make-up of your group.  One example can be if we began Spherical 1 with Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley slipped to us in the middle of the second. There’s a ton of upside with these operating backs, however we might also venture them to be lacking a number of video games this season.  Some move catchers with low ceilings will function heat our bodies when our primary guys will not be on the sector. Guys like Nyheim Hines, Dion Lewis, and Gio Bernard go late to very late in drafts. Duke Johnson would usually slot in right here besides he’s demanding a commerce out of Cleveland.

Handcuffs are nice for each group as they act like lottery tickets to provide a turbo-boost on your staff.  Your group ought to have at the very least 4 respectable options on the roster before loading up on handcuffs. High end handcuffs like Miles Sanders and Jaylen Samuels is perhaps rockstars if there’s an damage, however relying on that to occur early sufficient in the season to matter can be dangerous.

There are also some situations the place your star operating backs are out with minor injuries/suspensions and you’ve got some rookies or different young gamers which will take time to develop.  In these instances, presumptive starters like Peyton Barber and LeSean McCoy can maintain the fort for a bit of bit until your workforce gets rolling.

Large Receivers

Except for receivers that outperformed their draft value (Tyreek Hill within the 3rd, Robert Woods within the 7th, Cooks in the 5th, Sanu in the 14th), the other receivers on this knowledge set that helped increase their greatest ball workforce’s level complete have been Mike Williams and DeSean Jackson.  Both have been strong performers general and had some big games (multiple touchdown or giant yardage). We’d anticipate that Calvin Ridley additionally confirmed up on so much of profitable groups last yr.

Potential targets as massive play threats (ADP as of 7/7):

DeSean Jackson (ADP 106.6 – Spherical 9, Decide 10.6) – What’s not to love about DeSean Jackson?  He’s the prototypical boom-bust player that helps crack beginning lineups in Greatest Ball with a 70 yard TD.  As long as he has been round a QB prepared and capable of throw a deep ball, he has been profitable. Carson Wentz goes deep typically and may hit the receiver (7th in deep ball accuracy final yr), which shall be a recipe for fulfillment.

Albert Wilson (ADP 179.eight – Round 15, Decide 11.eight) – Albert Wilson represents a late round swing for the fences.  He nonetheless has not recovered from his hip damage, but in restricted enjoying time final yr, he showed velocity and open subject elusiveness to get these coveted lengthy scores.  Wilson is an damage danger and being drafted proper after his teammates Parker and Stills, nevertheless, Stills is coping with accidents of his personal and we’re selecting to disregard the fifth straight yr of hype for Parker.

Different targets – Robby Anderson (ADP 62.9 – Round 6, Decide 2.9)

Potential targets for top TDs (ADP as of 7/7):

Mike Williams (ADP 52.2 – Round 5, Decide 4.2) – Mike Williams has completed it already with 10 touchdowns last season.  Now, we anticipate him to take that 3rd yr WR leap and stay as much as his draft pedigree (seventh general in 2017). The departure of Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates ought to offset Hunter Henry coming back.

Donte Moncrief (ADP 120.9 – Spherical 11, Decide 0.9) – Moncrief had a nostril for the endzone in Indy before accidents pressured him off of the sector and ultimately off the workforce.  He had a reasonably pedestrian season with Blake Bortles final yr, however so did everybody else who performed in Jacksonville. Now there’s some information from camp that he might be the #2 WR in Pittsburgh which has been nice for fantasy production in the Massive Ben era.

Different targets – Alshon Jeffrey (ADP 73.Four – Round 7, Decide 1.Four)

Potential targets for good return on value (ADP as of 7/7):

Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 103.eight – Spherical 9, Decide 7.8) – Perennially disrespected future first ballot Corridor of Famer Larry Fitzgerald ought to be capable of return value at this ADP.  He can still get it achieved. We anticipate him to rise in ADP as we get reviews of or see firsthand how the new Kliff Kingsbury offense compares towards last yr’s unimaginative Mike McCoy offense.

Mohamed Sanu (ADP 177.1 – Round 15, Decide 9.1) – We anticipate an uptick within the offense as an entire with the primary beneficiaries being Ridley and a healthy Freeman.  Nevertheless, Sanu is principally free, and his slot position isn’t going anyplace on this Atlanta offense.

Tight Ends

The story line for tight ends is in case you draft and play a decent finish for the complete yr, most of them are horrible. 59% of the 2000+ point complete groups had at the least one participant out of Kelce (3rd), Ertz (third), Kittle (ninth), and Ebron (13th).  That matches the share (59%) of groups that had both Gurley, Saquon, McCaffrey, or Kamara. The distinction is that everybody will get a stab at a decent finish and not everyone gets a chance at grabbing one of the cream of the crop operating backs.

The question this yr is whether or not the draft worth is well worth the funding.  Kelce is going at ADP 9.2 and could possibly be the suitable worth. Meaning he’s not helping or hurting the group based mostly on where he’s being drafted.  Drafting Kelce at 9 means we’re forgoing high volume backs like Bell, Mixon, and Conner. After the turn, we’re more than likely dealing with down a wall of high degree WRs like Michael Thomas, Julio, and OBJ.  On the end of the 3rd, we could possibly be selecting between Kerryon Johnson or Josh Jacobs, both respectable choices but each with risks as our first RB.

Gronk from final yr is the closest analog for this yr’s Kelce.  Gronk just missed the record at 12% possession. Although he was disappointing to house owners in typical fantasy soccer leagues (and was a shell of his former self in the playoffs), his early season success was ok to return on his 2nd round worth.  Half of the reason being that half the groups in Greatest Ball leagues may have mediocre to terrible tight ends.

Potential targets (ADP as of 7/7):

George Kittle (ADP 24.0 – Spherical 2, Decide 12) and Zach Ertz (ADP 25.0 – Spherical 3, Decide 1) – These players are presently being drafted slightly sooner than the place they might have made impacts final yr (Round 3).  Ertz can be the preferred TE as we’ve had extra historical past on him and he has a great reference to Wentz. Kittle has accomplished it for one season and we didn’t get to see much time with Garopollo at QB.

OJ Howard (ADP 51.Four – Spherical 5, Decide Three.4) – OJ Howard is one of just a few TEs in historical past that may catch a move and then run 75 yards for a score.  There’s a ton of causes to love Howard this yr (poised for third yr breakout, explosive, excessive draft decide, Jameis Winston loves throwing to TEs) and only one not to (can he play a full season wholesome)?

Trey Burton  (ADP 125.9 – Spherical 11, Decide 5.9) – A post-hype sleeper, Burton was anticipated to do nice things because the Zach Ertz position in Matt Nagy’s offense.  He is bodily gifted, however underwhelmed when given the TE reins final yr. With another yr of progress and constructing a connection with Trubisky, Burton is one of the few late spherical TEs with an outdoor probability of making a huge impact in your Greatest Ball roster.

Good luck in your drafts this yr!  When you’ve got any questions, don’t hesitate and e-mail us.

Written on 7/7/19 by Winston Lee (up to date 7/10/19)